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Break-even ROAS calculator

This calculator tells you the lowest ROAS your ads can run at without losing money, based on nothing but your gross margin. It then lets you set a profit target, the share of revenue you want to keep after ads, and shows the higher ROAS you need to hit it. It does not tell you what ROAS your campaigns are achieving today, and it does not know your fixed costs. It is a floor to measure against, not a forecast. If the profit target you enter equals or exceeds the margin, no ROAS can reach it and the second result will not be meaningful.

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Break-even ROAS

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ROAS needed for your profit target
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Plain arithmetic on your inputs. Nothing is sent anywhere. Not a forecast.

The arithmetic behind break-even ROAS

Break-even ROAS is 100 divided by your gross margin percentage. At a 40 percent margin, every dollar of revenue carries 40 cents of gross profit, so you need 2.5 dollars of revenue to cover each dollar of ad spend. That is a break-even ROAS of 2.5x. The profit target works the same way but leaves room for what you want to keep. If you want to hold on to 10 percent of revenue as profit, only 30 of your 40 margin points are available to pay for ads, so the required ROAS becomes 100 divided by 30, which is about 3.3x.

How to use the two numbers

Set the break-even figure as the hard floor for any campaign that is purely about acquisition. Below it you are paying to lose money on each order, which only makes sense if you have measured repeat purchases and know they cover the gap. Set the profit target figure as the working goal for campaigns you expect to fund the business this month. If a campaign sits between the two, it is contributing to overheads but not to profit, and the decision to keep it depends on what else you could do with the budget.

Why margin, not ROAS, is the number to improve

Two stores with identical campaigns and identical ROAS can have opposite outcomes because their margins differ. A store at 60 percent margin breaks even at 1.7x. A store at 25 percent margin needs 4.0x just to stand still. Before spending more on ads, the cheaper fix is often on the other levers: a higher average order value through bundles spreads the same shipping and acquisition cost across more revenue, and a better conversion rate lowers the effective cost of every click. Both push the ROAS you actually achieve up while this floor stays where it is.

Questions

Enter contribution margin: the share of the order price left after cost of goods, payment processing, packaging and any shipping you subsidise. The closer that figure is to reality, the more useful the floor. If you sell several categories at different margins, calculate a break-even per category.

The target cannot be reached. Ads cost money, so the most you can keep after ads is your margin minus something. If the second result looks wrong, lower the target below the margin figure.

Only if every campaign sells the same mix of products. A campaign that sells your highest-margin line can run at a lower ROAS than one that pushes low-margin accessories. Separate the campaigns by margin and set targets for each.

They can, if you know your repeat purchase rate and the margin on those later orders. Work out lifetime gross profit per new customer, and let the first order lose only what the later orders reliably recover.

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