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Google shopping budget estimator

This estimator starts from a target, the number of orders you want from Google Shopping in a month, and works backwards to a budget. It uses your conversion rate from Shopping clicks to find how many clicks you need, multiplies by your average cost per click to find the spend, multiplies the orders by your average order value to find revenue, and divides revenue by spend to show the ROAS that plan implies. It assumes clicks are available at that price in the volume you need, which is not always true, and it assumes conversion rate holds as you buy more clicks, which it often does not. Treat it as a first budget to test, not a promise.

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Monthly budget

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Clicks needed
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Expected revenue
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Implied ROAS
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Plain arithmetic on your inputs. Nothing is sent anywhere. Not a forecast.

How the budget is built from the order target

Clicks needed is the order target divided by the conversion rate. If you want 100 orders and 2 percent of Shopping clicks turn into orders, you need 5,000 clicks. Budget is those clicks multiplied by cost per click: 5,000 clicks at 80 cents is 4,000 dollars. Revenue is the 100 orders multiplied by a 75 dollar average, which is 7,500 dollars. Implied ROAS is revenue over spend, 7,500 divided by 4,000, which is about 1.9x. If that figure sits below your break-even ROAS, the plan loses money before you have bought a single click, and the inputs need to change before the campaign does.

Where to get the conversion rate and cost per click

If you already run Shopping, take both from the campaign report for the last ninety days, split by device if mobile and desktop differ a lot. If you have never run it, use your site-wide conversion rate for paid traffic as a starting point and the cost per click that the keyword planner or your first week of data suggests for your category. Expect the real figures to differ, and rerun the estimate after two weeks with what actually happened. The estimate is most wrong for new accounts and for stores with very high or very low prices, where click costs and conversion rates behave differently from the average.

What the implied ROAS tells you about the other levers

If the implied ROAS is too low, there are three ways out and only one of them is cheaper clicks. Raise conversion rate on Shopping traffic by sending clicks to product pages that match the search, showing stock and delivery clearly, and keeping the checkout short. Raise average order value with bundles and a shipping threshold so each order carries more revenue for the same click cost. Or accept a low first-order ROAS because your repeat purchase data shows the customer comes back. Change one input at a time in the tool and you can see which lever pays back most for your store.

Questions

The arithmetic is the same for any campaign type that sells from a feed. Use the conversion rate and cost per click for the campaign type you plan to run, because the two can differ in the same account.

Because conversion rate usually falls as you buy more clicks, since you move from the most relevant searches to broader ones, and because cost per click rises when you push for more impression share. Add a margin to the estimate for both effects.

Do not launch at those numbers. Fix the product page and checkout to raise conversion rate, tighten the feed so clicks are more relevant, or exclude low-margin products from the campaign. Then rerun the estimate.

Divide the monthly budget by the number of days in the month. Keep in mind that the platform may spend more than the daily figure on some days and less on others, but should hold the monthly total.

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